GustavoRinaldi’s Academic Site

The Russian population diminished by six million between 1992 and 2008; there was some natural growth between 2009 and 2018 (the jump in 2015 is the effect of the non internationally recognised annexation of Crimea). Since 2019 it has been diminishing again. The Russian population on January 2022 in its internationally recognised borders is at 142,957,219 is fast heading towards the lowest of the last 30 years (142,737, 196 the figure of 2009). The figure in January 2023 will probably be below the 2009 level.

The Interior Ministry of Italy provides the nationalities declared by those who arrived on informal boats on the Italian shores.

Most of these immigrants come from three countries (Egypt, Tunisia and Bangladesh) none of them is a low income country and they are not at war.

In 1960 in the USA just 2% or 3% of the total value added was going to the owners of different forms of capital. This share after 1970 has been growing consistently with a clear upward trend. In 2022 the share of value added going to the owners of capital is about 16%. It increased by 8 times.

These are the results of what Warren Buffet defines “class warfer”. The group of the holders of different forms of capital have been able to take a piece of the total cake larger and larger.

This would be very positive if led to more investments, but it did not.

We have to go back to June 21 to find lower gas prices.

The Dutch TTF gas price was lower than today only before July 21st. Prices are still very high , but they are less than half (46%) of what they were on August 26th.

The price of gas at the Dutch TTF ICE exchange keeps on diminishing, but remains far too high to allow an economy without recession.

Lower prices were given only before July 25th. The threats of putting a cap probably contribute to diminish this price.

I pressi del gas al mercato TTF ICE continuano a diminuire anche se sono sempre troppo alti. Solo prima del 25 luglio c’erano prezzi inferiori.

January – August 2022

If we consider the total gas available in the country, 4% is extracted locally and 96% is imported.
Total gas available (domestic production + imports) increased by 3.74% compared to the last year. Fearing a possible cut in Russian supplies in the winter, Italy imported as much as possible, even at high prices. Storages increased by 67,9% and consumption diminished by 1,8%.
Italian exports increased by 238.2%, but it should be taken into account that only 4.45% of the total gas available was exported. Eliminating this item, blocking exports, would not be enough to eliminate the regasifiers or the gas coming through the TAP pipeline. It should be noted that already in 2021 Italy exported 2.3% of the total gas available at the time. Please note that a country like Switzerland, in the period considered, increased its exports to Italy by 412.1%, supplying Italy with 11% of the total gas available (Norwegian gas). It is clear that Italy is a country that benefits from re-export processes and exchanges between consumer countries. Unfortunately, there are people who speculate on these data for political purposes by spreading real disinformation.

Among the countries Italy imports from, Algeria stands out, it provided Italy with 29% of the total available. The Russian share fell to 22% (19% in August). In the first 8 months of 2021 the import from Russia represented 40% of the total. In the period considered Italy imported from Russia only 60% of what it imported in 2021 in the same period (in August only 47.7% of what was imported in August 2021). In third position are the regasifiers with 18% of the total, Azerbaijan with 13% and Norway with 11%. The weight of Libya, which provides just 3%, is still modest.

August 2022

In August, a sharp drop in Russian supplies can be noted, covering only 19% of the total. They have been replaced by Algeria (33%) and all other sources , but not too much by regasifiers, which in August remained below the 2022 average at only 14%.

Gennaio – Agosto 2022

Se consideriamo il gas totale disponibile nel paese, il 4% è estratto localmente ed il 96% è importato.

Il gas totale disponibile (produzione nazionale + importazioni) è aumentato del 3,74 % rispetto all’altr’anno. Temendo un possibile taglio delle forniture russe in inverno, si è importato il più possibile anche a prezzi elevati. Si è immagazzinato il 67,9 % in più dell’altr’anno ed si consumato l’1,8% in meno.

Le esportazioni italiane sono aumentate del 238,2%, ma si tenga conto che solo il  4.45% del gas totale disponibile è stato esportato. Eliminare questa voce, bloccare l’export,  non sarebbe sufficiente per eliminare i rigassificatori o il gas proveniente tramite il gasdotto TAP. Si noti che già nel 2021 l’Italia  esportava il 2,3% del gas totale allora disponibile. Faccio notare che un paese come la Svizzera,  nel periodo considerato ha aumentato le sue esportazioni verso l’Italia del 412,1%  arrivando a fornirci l’11% del gas totale disponibile (il gas norvegese). E’ chiaro come l’Italia sia un paese che si avvantaggia dai processi di riesportazione e degli scambi tra paesi consumatori. Purtroppo c’è gente chi specula a fini politici su questi dati diffondendo vera e propria disinformazione.

Tra i paesi da cui importiamo spicca  l’Algeria, che ci ha fornito il 29% del totale disponibile. La quota russa si è ridotta al 22% (19% nel mese di agosto). Nel periodo considerato abbiamo importato dalla Russia solo il 60% di quanto importavamo l’altr’anno nello stesso periodo (ad agosto solo 47,7% di quanto importato nell’agosto 2021).  In terza posizione ci sono i rigassificatori con il 18% del totale, l’Azerbagian con il 13% e la Norvegia con l’11%. Sempre modesto purtroppo il peso della Libia che fornisce appena il 3%.

Agosto 2022

Ad agosto si può notare un forte calo delle forniture russe che coprono solo il 19% del totale. Esse sono state sostituite dall’Algeria (33%) e da un po ‘ tutte le altre fonti, ma poco dai rigassificatori, che ad agosto sono rimasti sotto la media 2022 a solo il 14%.

There is a strong connection between union membership and share of the cake, which goes to workers. Most probably when workers do not have a collective representation, their ability to negotiate diminishes and their ability to benefit of the productivity increases weakens.